Earnings lotto

8:40 ET — calendar

Who reports today, before the open and after the close, with the expected move. The economic calendar that used to follow the morning desk posts here too. The option chain is still closed, so this message is the list, not a result.

9:31 ET — yesterday's result

One minute after the open, yesterday's 3:45 contracts are priced again. The result is the contract mid versus the 3:45 mid. The stock line shows whether the gap went with the contract and whether it cleared the expected move. A move in the right direction that is smaller than the expected move is not treated as a winning option. There is no estimated premium.

3:45 ET — the plays

Each card is the same-week expiration only. The strike is the out-of-the-money contract between one and two expected moves with the most volume. A larger print at another strike stays on the card as context and does not change the contract. A Friday after-close report uses the next Friday. The play also needs recent insider flow on the same side, a stock of at least $1 billion, a two-sided quote, volume, open interest, and a spread no wider than 15% of the mid. If nothing qualifies, the channel stays quiet.